Back in the 1980s,Watch The End of the Fucking World the Arctic's Chukchi Sea would have been largely frozen over by early December. But times, and climes, have changed.
Local authorities in the Russian village of Ryrkaypiy, located on the far northeast coast of the country and bordering the Chukchi Sea, have reported to the World Wildlife Fund and other organizations that 61 polar bears (up from initial observations of 56) have amassed just outside of town.
It's strange for often-solitary polar bears to congregate here, yet the iconic marine mammals have little choice: They require sea ice to hunt for seals, but the Chukchi sea ice is hovering at near-record lows.
"It's exactly what we expect in these low ice years," said Geoff York, Polar Bears International’s senior director of conservation and a former biologist for the U.S. Geological Survey's Polar Bear Project.
"[The town] is used to one or two bears being around," York added. "They're not used to 50 or 60 at one time."
"It's a really unusual event," agreed Melanie Lancaster, the senior specialist for Arctic species at the World Wildlife Fund. "But it's an event that will happen more often," she said, referencing the Arctic's rapidly declining sea ice.
The 13 lowest Arctic sea ice extents on record have all occurred in the last 13 years.
Some specific seas within the greater Arctic, like the Chukchi, have experienced particularly dramatic declines. In 40 years of satellite observations, this November the Chukchi saw its lowest November ice cover on record. In a typical year in the 1980s, there were zero days when the Chukchi had more open water than sea ice, according to Alaskan climate scientist Rick Thoman.
"Now it's commonly about four months," Thoman noted online.
Polar bears often travel by the village of Ryrkaypiy on their way to find sea ice, explained York. Now, dozens of bears have found a pungent reason to congregate there. The village had cleaned up and collected dead walruses from the coast and put the carcasses in one area (tens of thousands of Pacific Walrus congregate in the area during the year, meaning some naturally die on the shore). The bears, with their excellent sense of smell, sniffed out the dead piles of walrus.
The bad news is this means some bears, like younger bears who aren't big or dominant enough to earn a place at the walrus dinner table, are more likely to enter Ryrkaypiy to sniff around, increasing the chances for bear-human conflicts.
"It's not an ideal situation for [bears]," said the WWF's Lancaster. "And it's far from ideal for people." (Thus far, there have been no problematic encounters local officials told Lancaster).
"They’re waiting for the bears to go," she added.
For this unusual congregation of bears, York said the looming question is "how long will they be onshore waiting for ice, and what will they do when they have depleted the carcasses?"
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Some polar bear populations, particularly in Churchill, Canada, commonly called the "polar bear capital of the world," are plummeting. But of the 19 polar bear populations in the world, 11 of them have unknown population trends, as regularly counting bears in remote, harsh regions is hugely expensive. According to Polar Bears International, three populations are stable or likely stable, three have likely declined, and two have either increased or likely increased.
As the climate relentlessly warms — 18 of the 19 warmest years on recordhave occurred since 2000 — Arctic scientists expect sea ice to continue its dramatic losses, meaning bears will spend more time on land, searching for food.
SEE ALSO: The remote polar bear town rapidly losing its famous residentsBut they won't always find a lucky cache of walrus near a village like Ryrkaypiy. Without sea ice, bears are expected to become skinnier, reproduce less, and see population declines. Some populations may vanish.
“We will have polar bears to the end of the century, but where they’re going to be is the million-dollar question,” Andrew Derocher, a veteran polar bear scientist at the University of Alberta, told Mashable in November.
The strange situation in Ryrkaypiy is telling.
"It's what climate change looks like for polar bears," said York.
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